Global Economic Prospects Broad-Based Upturn, but for How Long? The World Bank forecasts global infrastructure investment index economic growth to edge up to 3.
1 percent in 2018 after a much stronger-than-expected 2017, as the recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade continues. Growth in advanced economies is expected to moderate slightly to 2. 2 percent in 2018, as central banks gradually remove their post-crisis accommodation and the upturn in investment growth stabilizes. Although near-term growth could surprise on the upside, the global outlook is still subject to substantial downside risks, including the possibility of financial stress, increased protectionism, and rising geopolitical tensions. Regional Outlooks EMDE growth accelerated in 2017 to 4. 3 percent, reflecting a recovery in commodity exporters amid continued robust activity in commodity importers.
EMDE growth is projected to further strengthen to 4. Growth in the region is forecast to slip to 6. 2 percent in 2018 from an estimated 6. A structural slowdown in China is seen offsetting a modest cyclical pickup in the rest of the region. Risks to the outlook have become more balanced. Growth in the region is anticipated to ease to 2. 9 percent in 2018 from an estimated 3.
A slowdown is expected to continue in the western part of the region due to moderating economic activities in the Euro Area. It is counterbalanced by a gradual recovery in the eastern part of the region, driven by commodity exporting economies. Growth in the region is projected to advance to 2 percent in 2018, from an estimated 0. Growth momentum is expected to gather as private consumption and investment strengthen, particularly among commodity-exporting economies.